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The 2009-10 IOMTHL Season is beginning. August 31, 2009

Posted by bluesfan45 in Fantasy.
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With the 2009-2010 NHL season fast approaching, several fantasy leagues are getting started or resuming for the next season. I was lucky enough to get in to Hockeybuzz Blogger (and all around nice guy) Brian Metzer’s new keeper league. This is a pretty deep, 16 Team League. Here is how the league shakes down.  All league drafts “snake”, meaning 1-16 then the next round its 16-1, then 1-16, etc.

30 Round NHL Dispersal draft.
– Eligible players must have at least one NHL game played to be in this draft.

25 Round Prospects Draft
– Players with less than 125 NHL games played can be had in this draft. Players who were drafted beofre 2009 and have no NHL games played also qualify. Interesting twist here…if a player is taken here, he is protected from the other GMs. However, should this player eclipse 125 NHL GP during 09-10, any GM can take a player on the Prospect roster without Penalty. Ex. Roman Polak can get over 125 NHL GP this year. At game 126, someone can “poach” him from my Prospect Roster.

7 Round 2009 NHL Entry Draft
– Eligible selections must have been in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.

The league is set up as weekly H2H using common stats for points. Each night you dress 3 standard lines of LW-C-RW, 3 Forwards, 6 Defensemen, and 2 Goalies.

Through my 12th Round Pick I currently have:
Mike Cammalleri – Andy McDonald – Johan Franzen
Ryan Malone – Antoine Vermette – Martin Havlat
David Booth – – Nik Antropov

D – Zdeno Chara – Mike Green
D – Chris Pronger – Joe Corvo

G – Steve Mason & Nikolai Khabibulin

I did have to deviate from my plan. Right off the bat I saw I was drafting 13th in the first round. I traded down to move up in later rounds. In my opinion there are only about 8-10 legit fantasy difference makers as forwards, I felt I was better served going down. With my first pick (2nd Rd #4) I took Mike Green. My second 2nd Round pick went to Steve Mason at #15 in Round 2.

As teh draft shook down, I realized I wasn’t going to be able to steal Blues players. In leauges that count PIM, Backes is a beast. He went earlier than I thought. Berglund, TJ, and Perron all followed in short order after EJ was picked. I was able to make a deal moving up to get Pronger right after EJ went. Literally, in each round I targeted Boyes, Backes, Berglund, Perron and EJ…they were taken just a few picks before I was up.

I then shifted my focus from high cieling youngsters to players at the top of the teams depth chart, but might not be the best team. Targeting players ages 27/28 to 31/32. My goal was to get players all capable of scoring 20-25 goals, but would have up to 30 (or more) potential. My thinking was, be competitive now, and try to get key long term names in the prospect and entry draft. Which lead me to taking Nazem Kadri with my #5 Entry Pick. I felt he had a shorter route to the NHL than Brayden Schenn did.

Entry Draft Picks:
F – Nazem Kadri
D – David Rundblad
D – Simone Despres

All in all I think I am doing well so far. Soem deals to get better now have forced me to work more deals to get better later, but I am very happy with what I have so far. Right now I think I have the most productive Blueline in the league with Green, Chara, Pronger, and Corvo. Hoping to add some more punch to that line up. Hoping to add two more guys who will be in situations to add points to what they came up with last year.

Here is a link to my Roster Page – Let’s Go Blues.
Dispersal Draft Link

Prospect Draft Link

Entry Draft Link

Looking ahead to the summer of 2010: Perron August 14, 2009

Posted by bluesfan45 in Offseason.
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This summer’s free agency market has put the Blackhawks between a rock and a hard place. The salary cap is being a cruel mistress to the up and coming team, while the lack of desire to lose the young talent making hockey popular in Chicago again is pushing back towards the rocks.

This made me think of the Blues. No, not just because of rivalry and the I-55 connection, but because next summer is our first real date with the salary cap mistress. First two going out on dates? David Perron and Erik Johnson. The team lightning rod and the original chosen one (sorry TJ,  EJ had the “buzz” first).

With talk of the Hawks, many Blues fans are looking at NHLSCAP, Capgeek, NHLNumbers…and wondering, where will the Blues find money for all these kids? What kind of contract can we expect? Well, we shouldn’t expect hometown discounts and Zetterberg type deals. The players won’t do that in their early 20’s (the y will ask for all they can get) and Front Office Brain Trust isn’t going to sign a 12 year deal any time soon.

The easiest way to compare is to look at similar players, like you would in an arbitration. What criteria are we looking at to gauge where David Perron might end up?
Age: age 25 or younger signing their first contract.
Position: Forward (Wing or Center apply)
Games played / Years of Service: Less than 3 full seasons, but at least surpassing 125 games played.
Production: Pacing between 40-60+ points a season over career.

Here are some players that fit the criteria.
David Krejci
David Booth
Chris Versteeg
David Moss
Curtis Glencross
Dave Bolland
Pierre-Marc Bouchard
Jordan Staal
Milan Michalek

Production Criteria:
Games played, Goals, Points, PP Points, points/game pace, % of teams point production in the 08-09 Season.

The chart below is a break down of the above players and offensive production criteria. Included is David Perrons stats from 2007-2009. Also included are three projections of David Perron’s career numbers after the 09-10 season. Perron’s figures for % of total team points in the projections would be based off of the 598 points total for the Blues players in 08-09.

Perron 1 = 80 GP – 15 Goals – 40 Points – 10 PP Points
Perron 2 = 80 GP – 20 Goals – 50 Points – 15 PP Points
Perron 3 = 80 GP – 25 Goals – 70 Points – 25 PP Points

Name NHL GP Goals Points PP Pts Pts/Game Pace % total Pts
Krejci 144 28 100 29 0.69 11%
Booth 193 56 110 18 0.52 10%
Versteeg 91 24 57 16 0.63 7%
Moss 163 34 68 15 0.42 6%
Glencross 145 29 66 7 0.46 6%
Bolland 121 23 64 4 0.53 7%
Bouchard 425 77 267 114 0.63 8%
Staal 245 63 119 19 0.49 7%
Michalek 317 91 214 70 0.68 8%
Perron 143 28 77 20 0.54 8%
Perron 1 223 43 117 30 0.52 7%
Perron 2 223 48 127 35 0.57 8%
Perron 3 223 53 147 45 0.66 12%

Name Contract
Krejci 3 years – $3.75mil
Booth 4 years – $4.25mil
Versteeg 3 years – $3.066mil
Moss 3 years – $1.30mil
Glencross 3 years – $1.20mil
Bolland 5 years – $3.375mil
Bouchard 5 years – $4.08mil
Staal 4 years – $4.00mil
Michalek 6 years – $4.30mil

Perron as of the conclusion of the 08-09 Season is very similar to Glencross, Bolland, and Krejci. That would put him in a range of $1.3mil to $3.5mil per season, if he his contract would have been up this summer. When projecting out Perron we see some interesting numbers. Perron would compare similarly to Jordan Staal and Versteeg,  if he were to regress or sustain his current production levels. His contract range there would be roughly $3mil to $4mil. Should he surpass production levels in 09-10, his offensive production would be put in to comparison with Bouchard, Michalek, Booth and Krecji. Putting him in a range of $3.75mil to $4.25mil.

Surpassing his 08-09 production would put Perron in very similar territory to David Booth. Both offensive, younger wingers who score goals. Perron would have an edge over Booth in total points produced, but you can equate that to a better team and a better power play. Would it then be fair to say that Perron would surpass David Booths contract? Could Perron command over $4.25mil per? Statistically, I think you can say “yes, he would”. However, I wouldn’t understatement JD, Larry, Doug, and company getting David to agreeing early to an extension at a lower than market rate. Similar to what Ray Shero did with Jordan Staal. Imagine the money Jordan could have asked for playing a shut down center who can score 20 or more Goals on a Stanley Cup winner…at the age of 20.

I wouldn’t fret just yet Blues fans. There will be plenty of money for David and plenty left down the road for TJ, Patrick and crew. One player we can point to, to see a smaller contract figure, would be our very own Brad Boyes.  Admittedly, Brad would be slightly different since he was a UFA. However, if we work with the 3rd Perron projection, their numbers are similar.

Name NHL GP Goals Points PP Pts Pts/Game Pace % total pts
Perron 3 223 53 147 45 0.66 12%
Boyes 245 86 180 50 0.73 *12%

*65 Boyes Points/545 Total Blues Points in the 07-08 Season.

Boyes has a definite advantage in Goals, but Perron isn’t dramatically far behind in total points or % of the teams points. With Boyes producing better numbers and signing for less than Michalek, Booth, and Bouchard, it is possible to see Perron fall to the lower range of the contract amounts.

Based on other players of similar age, role, and production it is safe to say Perron would likely garner a $3.50 mil to $4.25 mil per year contract in the summer of 2010. Where he signs at is likely determined by his production throughout the 09-10 season and if the Blues can get David to agree to an extension before the season ends. So again, fear not, as the fearsome in white skates will continue to wear the Blue Note for years to come. We just might want to watch out for Berglund should he surpass expectations the next two seasons.