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Thought of the Day: 04-29-09 April 30, 2009

Posted by bluesfan45 in Thought of the Day.
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Once again the San Jose Sharks have flopped out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. A Coaching change was made, key veteran additions were made, and sadly San Jose met the same outcome. Is it possible that it is not the periphery, but rather the core?

The question is, should San Jose entertain moving Marleau or Thornton? Both are capable #1 Centers, who have large contracts, but are not entirely unmanageable.

So where would those two go? Who needs a #1 Center and has the roster/cap space? One comes to mind.

So playing “computer chair GM” – what could a deal look like?
Columbus: Brassard, Torres, Chimera, 09 1st | San Jose: Thornton + 09 2nd or 3rd

Playing around with the cap figures:
San Jose is shedding Grier ($1.775 mil), Roenick ($1.1 mil), Moen ($912k) – totaling about $3.8mil. Adding Brassard ($1.246mil), Torres ($2.25mil), and Chimera ($1.875mil) would total approximately $5.3mil. Thornton dropping off would make the net loss of ($7.2mil – $5.3mil) about $1.9mil. Columbus would be taking on a net gain of approximately ($7.2mil – $3.8mil) $3.4 mil. The $3.4mil is easily made up allowing Malhotra ($1.2mil) and Williams ($2.2mil) to leave via free agency.

This would allow San Jose to replenish their depth/role players at a very similar price and free up money to purse another forward via free agency. Perhaps Gionta, Skyora, Sullivan, or Kozlov. This also gives Columbus a legit #1 Center to play with Nash and take any undo pressure off Filatov.

As a Blues fan I’m very glad we don’t have a question about our Centers…yet. If Columbus wants to improve and take the next step with their team next year, they need creator for Nash. That would certainly keep Columbus close to St. Louis and just under Detroit and Chicago.

Question to Blues fans: Would that make you fear Columbus? Having a legit, threatening scoring duo?

Question to Sharks/Blue Jackets fans: Feelings on the deal? Do Sharks fans really want Thornton gone? Are Jackets fans willing to accept a “big trade” to make their team better?

Blues Thought of the Day – 04-26-09 April 26, 2009

Posted by bluesfan45 in Offseason, Thought of the Day.
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One of the Blues offseason goals is to shore up the back up goaltending for 09-10. Media coverage of the Blues seems to point to an UFA/Trade pick up rather than keeping Bishop in St. Louis or using Holt. If the Blues were to bring in a former starter like Khabibulin, Fernandez, Biron, Roloson, Gerber, Anderson, Clemmensen, or Kolzig, will it be a positive or a negative.

Experience in Regular Season and Playoffs.
Proven ability (especially in the case of Khabubulin, late season play by Roloson)
Someone to push Mason.
Injury coverage.

After giving the #1 job to Mason, he flourished. Will he regress if he is put in a position where he could be the odd man out?
What is the potential message to future additions? Will a prospective free agent want to sign here knowing its possible that their play may not be rewarded the next year?
There is a Potential to tie up $8-$10 mil in goaltending.

While I would love to add a proven goalie, what is really wrong with Mason? His play all year was solid, he just lacked goal support through the first half of the season. My personal pick would be Anderson, Valiquette, or Conklin. Anderson may not get a chance to start in Florida due to Vokoun and his contract and NYR/DET need to find ways to save money. All three have been back ups before to clear #1s and would be capable back ups.

Your thoughts?

Wrapping Up the Series April 25, 2009

Posted by bluesfan45 in Playoffs.
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The story is known around the league. A team left for dead at the halfway point by bloggers, journalists, and insiders alike. A team depleted by injuries mid way through their rebuild. Fans are talking Tavares vs. Hedman and if the Western Conference cellar dwellers will play as bad as the East to get a shot at the Canadian Sniper or the Swedish Pronger.

Enter the Manny Legace Meltdown, Chris Mason ascension, and the Monday Matinee Miracle in Beantown. Some how, some way this Blues teams finds a way to climb from 15th to 6th place. So when an inexperienced Blues team beats Colorado to draw the Vancouver Canucks in Round 1, the bloggers, journalists, and insiders alike write off the Blues. Blues fans know better. This team wasn’t just happy to eek in, they were hungry and eager to keep moving on.

The Blues were the ultimate “Rudy” team. The Blues were hardworking, students of the game, and every player willing to step up his game to help his teammates. Could the feel good story of the year who did everything right in the second half beat the Montreal Monster and the Twins? Blues fans were confident they would get close and see what fate held.

What happened between April 15th and April 21st was not expected.

Now to be fair, these were not blowouts. Even the 3-0 game was not out of hand. These games were all close checking, hard hitting, down to the wire games. This might be the “closest” sweep of a series in the NHL in a very long time. I agree with Peter Tessier when he says that the Cancucks looked dominate in only about four periods in the series. From Game 2 on, the play was pretty balanced.

The series ultimately boiled down to missed opportunities and hot goalies.

To end the regular season the Blues finished with 8th Ranked power play (20.5%) and the 3rd Ranked penalty kill (83.8%).  This was the Blues secret weapon, their kryptonite that would beat back the Canucks superior even strength play. If the Blues were to have a real shot at taking Vancouver over seven games, the special teams had to be in top form. In the four games the Blues power play clicked at a 4.2% clip and the penalty kill played at a 77.8% kill rate. With both sets of special teams units far from special and were no secret weapon. Perhaps the largest miss opportunity was the power play converting once out of 24 attempts. For the sake of argument let’s convert the Blues Playoff power play chances at their regular season rate. The Blues had 24 chances at a 20.5% clip, which would have turned in to 4.92 additional goals (rounded to 5). How much of a difference would have 5 goals made? A lot since the series differential was 5 for to 11 against (or a minus 6 for the Blues).

From novice casual fans to the face painting diehards, we all know that the goalie is a teams best penalty killer. The missed opportunities above ended up as missed opportunities because of the play of Roberto Luongo. As frustrating as it was to watch, Luongo really did play very well in every game. In games 3 and 4 he seemed beatable, but came up with the big saves when needed.

On the other end of the ice was Chris Mason. Cast out from Nashville in the offseason, Mason was brought in to challenge Manny Legace and give the Blues a capable back up.  The Meltdown that was Manny Legace is well documented, what came out of said breakdown was Mason’s amazing effort that carried in to the Playoffs. Mason was as good as could be expected. He made big save after big save that was required of him. There was the occasional “softy” let in, however how much of an impact would those “softies” had if the power play was better than 4%?

For those who are statistically inclined, here is a break down of each game in the series. Combining Mason’s and Luongo’s stats.
Game | Total SOG | Total Saves | Combined Save %
1 – 57 – 54 – .947
2 – 56 – 54 – .964
3 – 52 – 47 – .904
4 – 85 – 80 – .941
TOTAL: 250 – 235 – .940
* SOG Differential – 131 (Blues) to 121 (Canucks) –  +10 Blues for series, 2.5 SOG a game.

The two goalies combined to stop 94% of all shots in the series. With the shot differential less than 3 shots a game, it shows how even this series really was. Save for the execution of the Canucks compared to the execution of the Blues.

The Canucks are moving on, resting till Round 2. The Blues are moving on to front office meetings on pro scouting, draft scouting, and making player personnel decisions. While some fans see this four game sweep as a negative, I would disagree. This series (and the second half run) provided invaluable experience for Backes, Boyes, Oshie, Perron, Berlgund, McClement, Polak and others that will make up the core of this team long-term.

Thank you St. Louis Blues for an amazing season. Take your beatings, move on and get better.