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Looking ahead to the summer of 2010: Perron August 14, 2009

This summer’s free agency market has put the Blackhawks between a rock and a hard place. The salary cap is being a cruel mistress to the up and coming team, while the lack of desire to lose the young talent making hockey popular in Chicago again is pushing back towards the rocks.

This made me think of the Blues. No, not just because of rivalry and the I-55 connection, but because next summer is our first real date with the salary cap mistress. First two going out on dates? David Perron and Erik Johnson. The team lightning rod and the original chosen one (sorry TJ,  EJ had the “buzz” first).

With talk of the Hawks, many Blues fans are looking at NHLSCAP, Capgeek, NHLNumbers…and wondering, where will the Blues find money for all these kids? What kind of contract can we expect? Well, we shouldn’t expect hometown discounts and Zetterberg type deals. The players won’t do that in their early 20’s (the y will ask for all they can get) and Front Office Brain Trust isn’t going to sign a 12 year deal any time soon.

The easiest way to compare is to look at similar players, like you would in an arbitration. What criteria are we looking at to gauge where David Perron might end up?
Age: age 25 or younger signing their first contract.
Position: Forward (Wing or Center apply)
Games played / Years of Service: Less than 3 full seasons, but at least surpassing 125 games played.
Production: Pacing between 40-60+ points a season over career.

Here are some players that fit the criteria.
David Krejci
David Booth
Chris Versteeg
David Moss
Curtis Glencross
Dave Bolland
Pierre-Marc Bouchard
Jordan Staal
Milan Michalek

Production Criteria:
Games played, Goals, Points, PP Points, points/game pace, % of teams point production in the 08-09 Season.

The chart below is a break down of the above players and offensive production criteria. Included is David Perrons stats from 2007-2009. Also included are three projections of David Perron’s career numbers after the 09-10 season. Perron’s figures for % of total team points in the projections would be based off of the 598 points total for the Blues players in 08-09.

Perron 1 = 80 GP – 15 Goals – 40 Points – 10 PP Points
Perron 2 = 80 GP – 20 Goals – 50 Points – 15 PP Points
Perron 3 = 80 GP – 25 Goals – 70 Points – 25 PP Points

Perron as of the conclusion of the 08-09 Season is very similar to Glencross, Bolland, and Krejci. That would put him in a range of $1.3mil to $3.5mil per season, if he his contract would have been up this summer. When projecting out Perron we see some interesting numbers. Perron would compare similarly to Jordan Staal and Versteeg,  if he were to regress or sustain his current production levels. His contract range there would be roughly $3mil to $4mil. Should he surpass production levels in 09-10, his offensive production would be put in to comparison with Bouchard, Michalek, Booth and Krecji. Putting him in a range of $3.75mil to $4.25mil.

Surpassing his 08-09 production would put Perron in very similar territory to David Booth. Both offensive, younger wingers who score goals. Perron would have an edge over Booth in total points produced, but you can equate that to a better team and a better power play. Would it then be fair to say that Perron would surpass David Booths contract? Could Perron command over $4.25mil per? Statistically, I think you can say “yes, he would”. However, I wouldn’t understatement JD, Larry, Doug, and company getting David to agreeing early to an extension at a lower than market rate. Similar to what Ray Shero did with Jordan Staal. Imagine the money Jordan could have asked for playing a shut down center who can score 20 or more Goals on a Stanley Cup winner…at the age of 20.

I wouldn’t fret just yet Blues fans. There will be plenty of money for David and plenty left down the road for TJ, Patrick and crew. One player we can point to, to see a smaller contract figure, would be our very own Brad Boyes.  Admittedly, Brad would be slightly different since he was a UFA. However, if we work with the 3rd Perron projection, their numbers are similar.

*65 Boyes Points/545 Total Blues Points in the 07-08 Season.

Boyes has a definite advantage in Goals, but Perron isn’t dramatically far behind in total points or % of the teams points. With Boyes producing better numbers and signing for less than Michalek, Booth, and Bouchard, it is possible to see Perron fall to the lower range of the contract amounts.

Based on other players of similar age, role, and production it is safe to say Perron would likely garner a $3.50 mil to $4.25 mil per year contract in the summer of 2010. Where he signs at is likely determined by his production throughout the 09-10 season and if the Blues can get David to agree to an extension before the season ends. So again, fear not, as the fearsome in white skates will continue to wear the Blue Note for years to come. We just might want to watch out for Berglund should he surpass expectations the next two seasons.